Keynote - Strategy Paper read during the Ethnic Affairs Seminar (Europe).!
Political Thoughts and the Sharing of Opinions
A . The Strengths of the Burmese Military Regime
1.They control all the mercenary armed forces.
2. They have unrestricted access to the State coffer.
3. They enjoy give and take deals with CHINA, ASEAN, INDIA and RUSSIA.
4. Lack of Unity within the democratic forces (that includes the ethnic groups).
B . Weaknesses of the Burmese Military Regime
1. The Burmese Military Regime came into power by force, it lacks legitimacy.
2. Aging military leaders.
3.The armed forces of Burma have no codes of conduct, rules and regulations. Collapse is a threat in case of any sudden change.
4.Other State institutions lack codes of conduct and laws and may collapse – expecially in the event of military collapse.
5. No support from the EU, UN, USA, CANADA, AUSTRALIA, JAPAN, the IMF and the World Bank.
6. Facing fierce opposition from the Burmese and ethnic nationalities populations and the Buddhist clergy.
7. Constantly under the watchful eyes of the Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, ILO, ICRC’s.
8.Internationally tarnished reputation and image of the Burmese Military Regime — especially after recent events, e.g. the “Saffron Revolution” and the cyclone Nagris.
9. Foreign investments are decreasing; the country’s economy will collapse. With oil- prices hype a general economic, social and political crisis is immiment. The whole country is geared towards a serious humanitarian crisis. The Burmese Military Dictators will not be able to manage these crisis.
10.Influencial world news media have so long been exposing its miserable human right records.
11.All major religions and their related organizations have condemned the Burmese Military Regime.
12.The government servants and the rank and file inside the Army do not actually support the Burmese Military Regime.
13.The dictators’ Kyant-Phut nad Swan-arr-shin are hated by the general masses.
C . Strengths of the Democratic Forces
1. The weaknesses of the Military Regime mentioned above.
2. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, despite her freedom being restricted remains a major strength of the democratic oppositions.
3. Received sympathetic support of major government, the international news media, major international organizations and the world community
4. TIMING, which is one of the decisive factors in Political Strategy, is NOW totally and favourably on the side of the democratic forces.
D . Weaknesses of the Democratic Forces
1? The strengths of the Burmese Military Regime as mentioned above.
2. Apart from Daw Aung San Suu Kyi there is no other leadership to unite all
the peoples of Burma.
3. Lack unity.
4. Lack political strategy.
5. Lack ideology. The “democratic” forces do not fully understand, embrace
or practice democracy.
Strategy Questions to ponder
1. How shall the democratic forces deal with the strategic blunder of entirely relying on Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been put under house arrest for a continous period of time for the past decades?
2. How shall the democratic forces turn their weaknesses into strength?
3. How shall they make good use of all their strengths without wasting their time and grasp the rare GOLDEN CHANCE now! (It is crucial to take serious note that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has urged all of us not to wait for her and to continue the struggle without her.) “Hope for the best and prepare for the worst!”- Aung San Suu Kyi –
4.CHINA, INDIA, ASEAN, RUSSIA etc are now obviously under an awkward position to enthusiatically continue to support the Burmese Military Regime, especially after the Nagris cyclone hit the country.
5.These countries are certainly concerned with a possible POWER VACUUM that may follow in case of the collapse of the Burmese Military Regime. So, what ALTERNATIVE is the democratic forces to provide and what kind of PREPARATION should we make, to avoid such a POWER VACUUM?
6. Based on the above analysis the ruling military regime has more weaknesses than strengths and that the democratic forces are gaining an upper hand. It is no more an appropriate time to continue issuing statements, appeals and demands to the military regime from a defensive position.
7. We should focus our attention on the fact that the political, social and economic situation in our country is alarmingly EXPLOSIVE. We should focus our attention on how best we could transform our country into democracy with the least blood letting. For all these to happen let us together find ways and means to unify all the democratic forces – cutting across all ethnic, geographical, religious, party and organizational boundaries – and struggle in unison and harmony towards achieving our ultimate goals.
Salai Kipp Kho Lian (Coordinator – CHIN FORUM)
This paper was read during the Union of Burma Ethnic Affairs Seminar (EUROPE)
22 June, 2008 Frankfurt, Germany
